An Impact-Based Flood Forecasting System for Citizen Empowerment

Flooding remains one of the most destructive and recurring natural hazards in the Philippines, exacerbated by climate change and intensified weather events. To address this challenge, the University of the Philippines Resilience Institute (UPRI), through its NOAH Center, developed an impact-based flood forecasting system rooted in anticipatory action (AA). Unlike traditional early warning systems, this automated platform predicts localized flooding a day in advance by combining globally calibrated rainfall forecasts, 100-year rain return maps, and population exposure data. The system is seamlessly integrated into the NOAH website, enabling local government units and humanitarian actors to prioritize resources and respond efficiently to emerging flood threats. Developed using open-source technologies, the tool emphasizes transparency, stakeholder collaboration, and citizen engagement. Validation efforts, including social media monitoring and community feedback, affirm the model’s accuracy. By leveraging digital innovation, open data principles, and capacity-building initiatives, the platform strengthens disaster resilience at the barangay level, empowers communities, and informs evidence-based governance. Its flexible design also enables integration with forecast-based financing (FbF) mechanisms, offering potential applications in agriculture and disaster insurance. This proactive, science-based system marks a significant advancement in disaster risk reduction in the Philippines.